中国房地产限售政策对房价的影响研究——兼论限售和限购的政策组合效应

自2017年3月以来，中国多个城市相继出台了房地产限售政策。本文基于2017年1月至2018年5月的全国城市月度数据，针对限售政策分期出台的实际情况，构建更具适用性的多期双重差分模型（Multi-Stage Difference-in-Difference），分别从国家和城市层面实证分析了限售政策平抑房价的效果及其异质性。在此基础上，又对限售政策和限购政策的联合效应进行研究。研究结果表明：房地产限售政策能显著平抑房价且效果具有异质性。具体而言，在国家层面，限售政策对房价的平抑效果二手房强于新房、小户型强于中大户型；在城市层面，其平抑房价的效果一线城市强于二三线城市、中西部城市强于东部城市。此外，双限政策的联合效果优于单一限售政策。以上研究对进一步发掘限售政策的独特价值具有现实意义。     

新时代农村基层党建研究

随着基层党建工作的不断展开,其考核指标逐渐硬化,而基层内生动力却相对弱化,基层党建工作实效降低。基层党建与日常生活之间存在张力,再加上基层社会资源相对匮乏,党建引领效果呈现出一定程度的虚化。改善基层党建工作,要在政治格局中明确其社会引领功能及限度,通过党的组织建设切实提升党建引领能力,并通过社会资源的支撑和制度保障,使基层党建达到"形真""效实"的有机结合。     

中国自贸试验区对地区经济增长的影响

利用双重差分法（Difference in Differences, DID），基于2007-2017年的中国城市面板数据，研究了中国自贸试验区政策试点对地区经济增长的影响。研究发现：第一，自贸区政策试点显著地促进了地区实际GDP与人均实际GDP的增长。第二，自贸区政策试点对地区经济增长的促进作用呈现出“边际效应递减”的特征，即随着城市等级的升高，促进作用逐级递减。肯定了自贸区政策试点对促进地区经济增长方式的改革成效，为自贸试验区制度的完善、复制与推广提供理论支撑与政策建议。     

多中心空间发展模式与雾霾污染——基于中国城市数据的经验研究

随着中国城市化水平的快速提升,以城市网络为依托的多中心经济发展新模式日益凸显.为此,文章结合城市经济和环境经济理论,通过计算城市规模分布的位序指数以及变换的首位度指数来测度各省份的多中心空间结构,并运用工具变量估计探讨了区域多中心发展模式对中国城市雾霾污染的动态影响和作用机制.研究发现,多中心空间结构对中国城市雾霾污染的影响呈现显著的倒U型特征,在区分城市规模和冬季供暖情况之后,此结论依然稳健.同时,测算结果显示,目前我国仅有少数省份处于雾霾污染随着多中心水平的提升而下降的阶段,多数省份的雾霾污染则随着区域内多中心水平的提高而加剧.最后,中介效应分析表明,市场一体化和要素流动是多中心空间发展模式影响城市雾霾污染的重要途径,且前二者与多中心空间结构能够对降低雾霾污染产生显著的正向协同作用.文章的研究结论为从雾霾治理视角思考中国未来区域空间发展模式提供了一定的经验证据和政策启示.     

Is There a Woodwork Effect? Addressing a 200-Year Debate on the Impacts of Expanding Community-Based Services

In U.S. social welfare history, many have suggested that if benefits were too attractive, consumers would come out of the woodwork to take advantage of the opportunity. Clinical trials have provided evidence of the woodwork effect’s existence, suggesting caution when expanding home- and community-based services (HCBS). However, it is unclear whether these studies are best suited to assess whether a system-level effect occurs. Using state and federal data tracking Ohio’s long-term services and support (LTSS) system from 1995 to 2015, this paper examines changes in the utilization rates and expenditures of Medicaid LTSS to explore whether a woodwork effect occurred as Ohio moved to improve its LTSS system balance (80% Nursing Home [NH], 20% HCBS) to (49% Nursing Home [NH], 51% HCBS). After accounting for population growth of individuals older than 60 and those with two or more impairments in activities of daily living, there was no change in utilization rates of older people with severe disability (1995: 491 per 1000 population, 2015: 495 per 1000 population) or overall LTSS expenditures (1997: $2.7 million [in 2013 dollars], 2013: $2.9 million). Our results suggest that states can make significant strides in HCBS expansion without increasing the overall long-term services utilization rate.     

Moving college health research forward: Reconsidering our reliance on statistical significance testing

Understanding the unique health needs of college students and establishing best practices to address them depend, heavily, on the inherent quality and contribution of the research identifying these needs. College health-focused publications currently exemplify less than ideal statistical reporting practices. Specifically, college health practitioners and researchers continue to rely heavily upon null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) as the sole standard for effectiveness, validity, and/or replicability of scientific studies, even though NHST itself was not designed for such purposes. Herein we address the following questions: (a) What is NHST? (b) What are the inherent limitations of NHST? (c) What are recommended alternatives to NHST? and (d) How can editorial policies promote adopting NHST alternatives? Using college health data from the CORE 2011 Alcohol and Drug survey, we provide a heuristic example demonstrating how effect sizes do not suffer from the same limitations as NHST.     

Rebound effects in persuasion: considering potential ironic effects of suppression and correction / Efectos rebote en la persuasión: una consideración de los posibles efectos irónicos de la supresión y la corrección

Abstract

Previous theory and research in persuasion has failed to examine possible ironic effects of attempting to suppress or to correct for influences of a potentially biasing source. Yet, because people often encounter sets of persuasive communications in order (e.g., in advertising), such rebound effects seem possible. Data on such possibilities are scarce, however. Here we present a relevant study. It followed the typical single-shot persuasive message with a second message on an unrelated topic but employed a similar type of (potentially biasing — attractive or unattractive) source. Attitudes following the second communication showed increased source impact for participants asked to suppress source-related thoughts during the first message (especially when the second message was encountered under load). Instructions to correct for potential source effects during the first message did not show ironic effects following the second message. This relatively small study is not enough to make definitive claims, but it suggests that rebound effects of thought suppression are possible in (repeated) persuasion settings. Future research and open questions regarding ironic effects are discussed.     

二元分割体制下城镇劳动力市场中的工作流动及其收入效应

基于中国家庭追踪调查两期数据（CFPS 2010、2012）和动态研究视角，本文系统分析和讨论了当今体制二元分割下的劳动力市场状况，以及由此产生的工作流动的发生机制及其经济后果，提出体制分割成为影响劳动力市场机会结构和经济后果不平等的重要集体性中介因素。体制对工作流动产生了三方面的影响：体制的稳定性效应，即为其成员提供内部庇护，从而降低体制内工作流动率；体制的收入效应，即与体制外流动相比，体制内工作流动会导致更高的收入增长；体制的壁垒效应，即体制阻止和排斥体制外的劳动力发生跨体制流动，从而影响工作流动的方向。经过使用倾向值匹配、IPTW等统计技术控制样本选择性后，分析结果显示，体制分割的这三方面效应均呈显著影响，且结果稳健。本文将体制分割与工作流动过程相结合，探讨体制对劳动力市场分割的动态作用，有助于更全面地理解当前劳动力市场中的分层与流动现状。     

青藏铁路开通后拉萨流动人口分析

2006年7月1日青藏铁路成功运营,随后,越来越多的外来流动人口不断从内地乘火车进入西藏首府拉萨市。流动人口具有双重效应,它在增强拉萨的旅游收入、促进文化交流、加快经济发展等的同时,也给诸如环境、治安、交通、文化遗产保护等方面带来了一定的负面影响。正确分析这些问题,不但有助于构建平安拉萨、和谐拉萨,乃至对西藏的稳定和发展都具有积极意义。     

鲜卑族在西北地区的迁徙活动

本文叙述了鲜卑族从东北迁往西北的过程及其影响。由于内部矛盾或其他民族的衰落,促使鲜卑各部逐渐迁入西北地区。在迁徙过程中或迁徙后,与当地民族融合,形成新的民族或部族,随着部落的解体,经济生产方式、文化的变迁,为其最终融入汉族或其他民族奠定了基础。